Agree or disagree?

[Beer-lord]

The US Craft Beer Market is overcroweded!

http://www.bonappetit.com/drinks/beer/a ... raft-beers


There may be no prettier place to discuss a battle than Block Island.

Located off Rhode Island’s coast, the Atlantic Ocean isle is filled with bluffs, beaches, and rolling hills, such as the one atop which the Atlantic Inn is perched. Here, on the lush lawn in front of the 1879 hotel, you can sit in white Adirondack chairs and watch the rippled waters. Or, on a recent summer morning, you could plop beside Dogfish Head president Sam Calagione and discuss craft beer’s coming bottleneck.

“We’re heading into an incredibly competitive era of craft brewing,” he says. “There’s a bloodbath coming.”

This may seem alarmist. After all, the Brewers Association just announced that 3,000-plus craft breweries now operate in America. Last year’s craft sales climbed 17.2 percent, overseas exports have escalated, and breweries such as Lagunitas, Sierra Nevada, and Oskar Blues recently constructed second breweries to spread their bitter ales farther, wider, and fresher. Heck, Stone is building a brewery in Berlin. Berlin!

I’m onboard with America abandoning middle-of-the-road beer and exploring flavorful new directions. The highway, however, is getting mighty crowded. Hundreds of different beers debut weekly, creating a scrum of session IPAs, spiced witbiers, and barrel-aged stouts scuffling for shelf space. For consumers, the situation is doubly confusing. How can you pick a pint on a 100-brew tap list? Moreover, beer shops are chockablock with pale this and imperial that, each one boasting a different hop pun. When buying beer, I can’t count how many times I’ve assisted overwhelmed shoppers, playing the benevolent Sherpa in the wilds of modern brewing.

In the ’90s, it was effortless to select a craft beer: It was the one that tasted different. Today, quality is no longer the sole differentiator. To stand apart, breweries must enlist new tricks to make consumers look at their beer. “We’ve looked at our packaging for 20-plus years, and we felt that we needed to see something new,” says New Belgium PR director Bryan Simpson. After much debate, New Belgium swapped its iconic watercolor imagery for a colorful contemporary look featuring hand-painted imagery. “New labels provide people with a reason to give a beer a second look and perhaps try something they’ve walked past for years,” Simpson says.

A second chance for a first impression is an appealing proposition. In California, Firestone Walker, Ballast Point, and Green Flash have freshened their face. Same goes double for Utah’s Uinta, Pennsylvania’s Weyerbacher, Indiana’s Upland, and Scotland’s BrewDog. In North Carolina, Lonerider and Natty Greene’s have followed suit, while Minnesota’s Summit recently altered its packaging for the third time in 28 years.

Beyond painting a new face and calling quitting time, founder Mark Stutrud went one step beyond and launched the one-off Union Series. The mission is combing the globe for unusual ingredients and highlighting them in beers such as Rebellion Stout, which uses a British dwarf hop. “We have a strong history of being a pioneer and a pacesetter, as well as establishing benchmarks within the industry,” Stutrud says. “It’s a platform to present to beer drinkers new experiences.”

The notion also appeals to New Belgium. “The biggest way to stay relevant is by pushing yourself to innovate,” says Simpson, who notes that the Coloradans release three new beers quarterly. “It engages people and gives them something fresh to check out.” That’s why Alaskan Brewing operates its experimental Pilot Series, and Pennsylvania’s Tröegs runs the Scratch Beer series, which to date has included 155 different beers. Oregon’s Full Sail features the Brewer’s Share, and Stone just started up the Stochasticity Project to create conceptual beers, such as the Grapefruit Slam IPA.

Endless choice is not always the be-all and end-all. “The promiscuous drinkers are never satisfied,” says Summit’s Stutrud. Besides, brewing more beer, and more styles, is a bet that more drinkers will be converted to craft. Yes, last year, craft beer accounted for just 7.8 percent of the market, but consumers are fickle. When I was in high school, Red Wolf and Pete’s Wicked Ale were the rage. Remember them? Probably not.

Hence, making more beer is not always the best solution. “We grew 15 to 16 percent last year,” Calagione told me on Block Island, “but we’re no longer America’s fastest-growing brewery.” Instead of accelerating sales velocity, Calagione says, “we’re putting more focus on the world around our beer.”

Calagione has applied the brewery’s nonconformist, do-gooder philosophy to far-reaching endeavors like the Dogfish Inn, Dogfish-brand food, and a music label, which this fall will release a Guided By Voices record. This is not to infer that Dogfish Head is turning its attention away from alcohol. “The beer side will always be the heart of our business,” he says, “but our halo will protect us.”

It’s why Stillwater runs the Sensory Series, interpreting bands’ songs in liquid form, while Goose Island just made a Sharon Van Etten–approved kölsch for Chicago’s Pitchfork Music Festival. On the fest circuit, Lagunitas runs the roving Beer Circus, and New Belgium operates the whimsical, bike-focused Tour de Fat. For its recent brand expansion, Pennsylvania’s Victory recently unveiled a lineup of cheese spreads, as well as ice creams concocted from its unfermented beer. “Strategically, that broadens our brand impact,” says cofounder Bill Covaleski. “It puts our flavors and brands in places where they’ve never been.”

I get it. As a freelance writer for 13 years, I operate under the “20-legged table” philosophy. If a single leg supports a table—your business—it’s easy to get knocked down. With 20 legs, it’s simple to stay upright if you lose a leg. And you will lose a leg. That’s the nature of business. Trends come, trends go. Thirty years ago, brewers rebelled against mainstream lager. Today that overlooked style could be a craft brewery’s biggest advantage.

“The best way to stand out from the crowd right now,” says Covaleski, ”is to make really damn good lager beers.”

[FedoraDave]

Then let there be competition. This is a free-market economy, and anyone who produces a good product that people want stands a good chance of success. The ones that fall by the wayside didn't meet or exceed expectations.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Opportunity is guaranteed. Success is not.

[Rebel_B]

Disagree. I believe that the thirst for well made local product is not even close to being satiated. Totally local sourcing of the ingredients is the next step; like Rogue growing their own grains, & hops for example.

[docpd]

I think time will tell if the craft beer market is becoming saturated. I personally love the new the new choices in local fresh beer. The only downside for me is that I am starting to like some local craft beers better than my own homebrews. On one hand that could encourage me to improve my own recipes and techniques, but on the other it might make me decide to just drink the great local beers available and stop putting in the time and effort to brew my own. So far I am taking up the challenge to make my brews better..

[berryman]

I personally love the new the new choices in local fresh beer. The only downside for me is that I am starting to like some local craft beers better than my own homebrews.

Yes and I agree, but you can brew beers equivalent and you made them yourself, they always taste better when you know what you had to go though to make them....

[Banjo-guy]

The only downside for me is that I am starting to like some local craft beers better than my own homebrews. On one hand that could encourage me to improve my own recipes and techniques, but on the other it might make me decide to just drink the great local beers available and stop putting in the time and effort to brew my own. So far I am taking up the challenge to make my brews better..

This is what I have been thinking lately.

Now that I can make decent but not great beer I find that I am looking at the increasing number of craft beers that are readily available and would rather buy them and get immediate gratification. Buying is also an easier and faster way to try a lot of different styles. My own beer is not on the level of the local craft beers and I find it hard to drink the amount of beer that I brew.

I think that a fallout is bound to happen but as Dave mentioned the strong will survive.

[BigPapaG]

I generally like the beer I make... It may not be world class but it's good, sometimes great...

Sometimes not, but you learn from your mistakes.

And I like some craft beer... And dislike some too... And some is just so so...

New brewerys are popping up all over and I do not believe it is near topping out.

And I will still try new craft beers and drink ones I love...

Mine is still cheaper most of the time, and I like the process, art and science of making it...

For me... It's like one of my other passions, cooking.

And just because I cook my own food, that doesn't stop me from eating out from time to time.

I'll be doing this probably until I physically can't.

[Gymrat]

As far as the market being overcrowded, the market will decide that.
For me personally, I still like my beer as well as if not more than any of the commercial beers I have tasted. I prefer to drink my own at home. I enjoy going out and trying some of the new beers available though.

[FedoraDave]

Good points being made in this discussion.

I agree that it's very convenient to have a good selection of commercial craft beer available. It beats waiting six or eight weeks for a drink.

But this is my hobby, and I enjoy the process, from thinking about a recipe and researching it, to crushing the grains, mashing, boiling, etc. And the anticipation of that first taste. Even if I'm making a recipe that I've nailed down and is one of my house brews, I get great satisfaction from seeing how consistent I've been.

As George pointed out, just because a person really enjoys cooking, that doesn't mean he won't eat out from time to time.

And I've found inspiration for my own beers from local craft beers. One of my favorites is Defiant's Muddy Creek Lager. It's the inspiration for my Copperbottom Lager, and I'm tweaking the recipe after my first attempt didn't turn out the way I envisioned it. So it's making me a more discerning and disciplined beer taster/homebrewer. Understand, also, that I'm not trying to clone the Muddy Creek; I'm making my own Amber Lager based on the aspects of the craft beer that please me most.

[Foothiller]

My wife's and my favorite beers are by local brewers, naturally including ones near our home. There is something special about the times when we are able to discuss the beers with the brewer. Even when we travel, we will prefer to try the local beers. If there is a limit on how many brewers this model can support, it would be very large.

[Foothiller]

Another thought: after college, I spent 6 months in Europe before returning for grad school. The first month was in a small town in Bavaria, which had 2 breweries: one served in restaurants and the other sold in stores. The next small town had its 2 breweries, etc. A visit to Hofbrauhaus was fun too, of course, but that was a different business model. The local breweries had been thriving for a long time.

[jivex5k]

Still plenty of room in South Florida. There's something extra special about drinking at a local brewery down the street, I love going to the Funky Buddha.
Folks a bit further north can enjoy Due South, and those near Miami have Wynwood. But if another brewery or even 3 would open near me I'd support them. Maybe distribution is going to hit a bottle neck, I can understand that. I ignore 90% of the beer I see at the beer store because I know what the best stuff is. I'm not going to buy 60 minute IPA when I can get Jai Alai for the same price. I don't even bother with imports any longer, can't justify the extra cost when I can already get amazing beer, hell even due south cans and I can get their awesome beer and keep drinking local.

You really need to be outstanding now to stand out to me, like Founders...Simply world class beer. Some stone beers are great too but I tend to only get Enjoy By, Ruinten, and IRS. Breweries like Flying Dog and Dogfish and New Belgium just don't stand a chance when I have Founders, Cigar City, Due South, Ballast Point, Victory...I mean even Ballast Point and Victory don't end up in my fridge that often these days but they make fantastic beer.

[Funky Skunk Brewing]

I do not believe the craft beer business is saturated, hardly. Though I do believe one area may be able to become saturated. Though that (for now) seems to be a bit of a stretch as well. I see all the craft breweries in North Carolina and how each thrive in their own rights or fall by the way side. They have near or over 100 operating breweries/brew pubs to date and the list continues to grow.

I believe and agree with Gymrat in the market will decide when it is saturated and that may be more localized and not overall in the space of craft breweries.

Many will open and fail ... Many will open and prosper. There will always be attrition, that is just part of the business world, no matter the business. I do not think the craft beer market has even come close to reaching the ceiling of it's own space. Many more new ideas and breweries are popping up seemingly every day.

[Crazy Climber]

Well said, Eddie! My thoughts exactly.

In some ways, the market probably favors those whose aim is local, over those looking to expand nationally. I could see the market for nationally-distributed craft beers becoming saturated a lot easier than a particular local market. (Granted, some "beer towns" are probably at or close to saturation levels now, but many others have not even been tapped yet...pun intended.)

As jivex5k and others have stated, it is getting tougher for high-quality, widely-distributed craft brewers to make an impression on an individual consumer, when you can get a good quality product down the street and know that you're supporting your neighbor, so to speak. Those mid-major brewers will get squeezed from below by the local brewers, and from above by the "crafty" brews of the Big Three. I think that's why the larger ones are looking to expand internationally. But my guess is, the international boom for American craft beer is a fad that won't last. I could be wrong, though; just my hunch.

[Crazy Climber]

Regarding the craft brew vs. home brew discussion: this has been something I've wrestled with since starting the hobby 3.5 year ago. There's so many things that can happen when home brewing that can make a beer less than optimal. I've often thought, "wouldn't it be a lot easier to just buy a great IPA rather than repeatedly try to make one, and miss the mark?" And as local brewers proliferate -- assuming they make a good product -- that question becomes more pertinent, because it's now that much easier to buy good stuff.

As long as my home brew skills are improving, I'm absolutely committed to the hobby and thoroughly enjoy the process from start to finish. If I hit a plateau and start to feel that I'm "forcing" myself to drink home-brewed beer that's not as enjoyable as what I can readily buy, then I'd probably re-evaluate things. But after 3 1/2 years in, I don't see that day coming soon. I'm making good beer (IMO), I'm still improving, and still enjoying the process. Plus, there's the added satisfaction of SHARING one's handiwork with others, which can't be matched by handing your buddy a bottle/can of really good beer that was made by someone else.

But I think doubts like that are common, no matter how good you are at something. IIRC, Brian Wilson of the Beach Boys was working on "Smile" when he heard "Sgt. Pepper" and basically decided, "Sh*t...never mind! They just did it better than I could ever do!" Not that I'm comparing myself to Brian Wilson in any way...