Hop crisis? Real or not?

[Beer-lord]

http://47hops.com/crisis
I'd hate to think someone is starting a conspiracy to help raise hop prices. Wonder if I should double my stock!

[John Sand]

Are you sure that you are not the cause of the hop crisis?

[Beer-lord]

It's not a crisis until I say so! But no, I have reduced my stock somewhat and buying less but I may have to change that if this is partly true.

[Dawg LB Steve]

Are you sure that you are not the cause of the hop crisis?

Been hearing the same story on hop shortages for the last 4-5 years around here. About 5 years ago the news had GLBC and Thirsty Dog saying they didn't know if they would have enough to last the year, yet not one of the two missed a beat with their brewing. I think if we go back about a year, you may have posted a similar thread. This very well could be put out to get the Craft guys to step up and contract more than they would normally at the beginning of the growing season. The BMC breweries already know what they will use and most of them have their own farms. My 2 cents anyway.

[BlackDuck]

If the number of Breweries and home brewers continue to expand, and the hop growers do not account for the growth, the the supply will go down. It's a simple supply vs demand thing. The hop growers need to grow along with the breweries, and if they don't, they will be able to charge a higher price, because the demand is up, but the supply is not available to meet the demand.

The hop growers may do this for a period of time in order to capture the higher prices they will be able to charge. But eventually, something will happen to balance it out. Two of those somethings would be either the small breweries or the home brewers will stop brewing because of costs (causing a decrease in demand), or the hop growers will grow more hops (causing an increase in supply). Either way, (and I'm sure there are other corrections that could take place), it will balance itself out.

[ScrewyBrewer]

Too many IPA brewers out there, hey wait, I never said that.

[Beer-lord]

Too many IPA brewers out there, hey wait, I never said that.

I resemble that remark!

[HerbMeowing]

Ever notice how there's always some kinda hop crisis and yet there's always plenty-o-hops around?

[RickBeer]

The story is about who is holding the inventory and financing it, noting that the growers and merchants are doing it more, which is riskier, not about a supply issue. If there is a big fallout in breweries, that could cause hop farms to fail.

[ScrewyBrewer]

Homebrewer growth has flattened out. According to the owner of The Brewers Apprentice in Freehold NJ, and an article she read published by the AHA.

Speaking with the owner of Little Dog Brewing in Neptune NJ, she expects to see several 7bbl systems for sale in a few years.

I think there have been rumblings since 2015 about consolidation in the brewing business. Based on the number of breweries in Monmouth County NJ, I also believe it will happen.

As far as homebrewing goes, there is no sign I can see of diminished interest. Our club, the Monmouth County Homebrewers Association, or MCHA for short, has 30 dues paying members. No one I have spoken to in my area has mentioned anything about a Hop shortage yet.


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